Jeff Whitten, correspondent
Bryan County’s most recent version of its five-year hazard mitigation plan is full of hypothetical worst-case scenarios, from hail to high water.
Among the worst of the worst natural hazards is that posed by a category 5 hurricane, where initial storm surge is expected to cover most of increasingly populated South Bryan in up to nine feet of water and cut off access into the county south of the Canoochee River.
The possible impacts of other potential disasters, both natural and manmade, are included in the updated 2024-2029 plan submitted to the Georgia Emergency Management and Homeland Security Agency Homeland Security and approved by Bryan County Commissioners at their March 11 meeting in Pembroke.
Assistant County Administrator Kathryn Downs told commissioners their approval of the latest plan is another step in an ongoing process required by the state in order for counties to receive certain types of funding from the Federal Emergency Management Agency.
Updated from a 2018 plan, the 2024-2029 plan, which run some 200 pages, doesn’t appear to be a standalone, all-encompassing set of rules but rather “a working document and is the first of many steps toward improving rational, long-range mitigation planning and budgeting for Bryan County and its municipalities,” according to the resolution by commissioners.
It instead offers a brief look at some of the risks, or hazards, emergency management officials here and elsewhere are tasked with preparing for. As a result, included among the natural and manmade disasters profiled in chapter three are thunderstorms, winter storms, flooding, tornados, drought, wildfires, hurricanes, extreme temperatures, hazardous materials incidents, transportation incidents, terrorism, critical infrastructure failures and emerging infectious diseases.
There’ve been more than enough real life instances lately of some of the hazards listed above.
Once seemingly almost immune from natural disasters, the Georgia coast, including Bryan County, has been hit harder over the past decade --- starting with Hurricane Matthew in October, 2016 and followed a year later by Hurricane Irma. COVID arrived in 2020.
In April, 2022, an EF4 tornado touched down in Pembroke and traveled to Black Creek, killing one person and injuring a dozen more while causing an estimated $15 million in damage to county buildings and private homes.
In August 2024, rains from Tropical Storm Debby led both the Ogeechee and Canoochee Rivers to flood, impacting a number of neighborhoods in Richmond Hill. In late September, winds from Hurricane Helene damaged structures across Bryan County.
In some cases, recovery is ongoing.
The update of the 2018 plan was funded by a combination of a FEMA grant and in-kind contributions from county and city employees as well as stakeholders and residents. It was put together by the contractor Lux Mitigation Strategies, with help from local and regional EMA and public safety officials as well as some public input back during a May 2024 meeting.
The plan also notes the importance of getting buy-in from the private sector and residents.
And, in its profile of various hazards facing the county, are some interesting items.
One example, under the severe thunderstorm category: “The Bryan County Hazard Mitigation Plan Update Committee has also determined that the lightning threat is severely underreported,” and goes on to say that the county “averages 54.1 flashes of cloud to ground lightning per square kilometer per year.
That equals a 14.8 percent chance of a cloud-to-ground lightning strike on any given day.”
And though completed before Tropical Storm Debby, the plan also notes “flooding has the potential to inflict significant damage within Bryan County, particularly along the Ogeechee River, Canoochee River, Black Creek and Mill Creek.”